The China-Lebanon Nexus: Between Economic Healing and Engulfment
The Lebanon-China trade deficit is enormous, growing from nearly $1 billion in the late 2010’s to hover around 2$ billion in 2024. For a country whose imports reach nearly 90% of GDP, this means Chinese goods are flooding Lebanon’s shelves. In fact, trade ties between the two states have been growing year on year (sans COVID-era) which raises the question: what could the impact of this be on Lebanon and the Lebanese economy?
Amidst the chaos from Israeli attacks over the last two years and the recent fall of the Al-Assad regime in Syria, Chinese imports seem to have provided an opportunity for economic relief as businesses and individuals have been able to procure cheap, good-quality products and sell them on the local market. Add to this young people’s internet skills and you have dozens of Instagram accounts creating ads and offering deals on clothing, home appliances, and even furniture. This new layer of online DIY retailers is facilitated by Lebanese expats living in China and businesspeople in Lebanon orchestrating procurement and delivery.
The downside? Some established manufacturers as well as importers from Europe report losses in revenue due to these competitive imports, risking a deindustrialization a la Pakistan, whose burgeoning solar panel industry could not compete with the goliath next door weaving out streams upon streams of cheaper PVC’s.
While my research employs a more macro-level world-systems analysis, granular primary data is essential to understanding the full ramifications of these developments, and through a network of friends and family I was able to get interviews with several expats as well as local businesspeople who import from China. The real challenge was convincing the Instagram stores to answer my survey. When I first reach out, I am greeted with glee and enthusiasm and then when I request my survey filled (just 15 short questions!), I am left on “Seen”. It is remarkable how the balance of power shifts when one goes from customer to researcher. To remedy this, I spruced up my Instagram page, posted a few of my interviews, got the verification badge, (shamelessly) bought two thousand followers, and this time had a pitch no online vendor could resist: Answer my survey and I’ll feature you on my page. The answers started rolling.
With about 50 respondents, my research is still limited in scope but there are some interesting initial patterns. First, almost all online vendors on Instagram are women. Second, as the goods they sell are quite affordable, this makes it an economically accessible activity not requiring too much up-front capital. In this way, these online vendors are denting the male-dominated, old-money monopolies in the country. However, this activity remains largely unregulated as the state has chosen to give the online vendors a blind eye, despite the yawning gap between what is being imported and what taxes are being paid.
Concerning local businesspeople, many have reported a marked shift in their dealings with Chinese suppliers. They describe a younger, more internationally attuned generation of Chinese staff whose stronger foreign-language skills and clearer grasp of foreign partners’ expectations have made negotiations smoother and misunderstandings less frequent than a decade ago. Trust-based ties are central here with one interviewee recounting an emergency loan sent after a simple phone call. Yet this trust does not fully compensate for structural risks. Quality control remains a persistent concern, pushing importers to travel to China several times a year to personally inspect merchandise before shipment.
Meanwhile, for the (predominantly male) Lebanese expats living in China, despite several Chinese banks refusing to open accounts for them, many have chosen to remain in China for several years and have flourished with limited Mandarin. The real challenge? Family life, as some wives chose to raise their children in Lebanon while others have filed for divorce.
I am now deciding whether to collect more data, which group to focus on, and which journals to target with my findings. In my future research, I would like to learn more about how trade with China relates to Lebanon’s socio-economic development and stability in the context of regional turmoil.
Toufic Sarieddine (Instagram @ChinaArabNews Tiktok is @Geopolitics.With.Toufic.)